3
Fallacy
3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 84
Cork · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Navigation Stakes (Listed) · 1m 2f 90y
#10
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲7
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 13.7 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: BHA72
Recent avg: C7.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -6.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | Gowran Park | BHA72 | 1st | 9th | −6 |
| 2026-05-16 | Navan | BHA73 | 3rd | 11th | −7 |
| 2026-04-24 | Cork | ? | 8th | 17th | −7 |
| 2025-12-05 | Dundalk | ? | 6th | 15th | −7 |
| 2025-10-24 | Dundalk | ? | 9th | 18th | −7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength31%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2025 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.23 |
| 05/12/2025 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 24/04/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |