Garden Party

3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 85

Cork · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Navigation Stakes (Listed) · 1m 2f 90y

#1

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

96%

Place Prob

75%

Rank

#1

★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST

▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark

Move▲5

Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 10.9 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 1

Recent avg: C6.2

Today: 1

Class gap: -5.4

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-29	Curragh	1	13th	13th	+0	1.0
2026-08-14	Cork	?	1st	10th	−7	1.0
2025-10-27	Galway	?	2nd	11th	−7	1.0
2025-10-18	Leopardstown	?	2nd	11th	−7	1.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 10-12 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -6.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
18/10/2025	2nd	8/1	58%	92%	+0.34
27/10/2025	2nd	5/6	96%	91%	-0.05
14/08/2026	1st	6/5	94%	100%	+0.06
29/08/2026	13th	20/1	0%	8%	+0.08