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Manton Bay

3yo Colt · 9-5 · OR 97

Cork · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Navigation Stakes (Listed) · 1m 2f 90y

#12

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Remains steadily progressive and got off the mark for the year at Killarney last month. Beaten only by a smart prospect in the Irish Cambridgeshire the following week and produced another solid effort off 10 lb higher at the Curragh. Worth a shot at this level.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲8
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 12.9 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -8.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 27/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR - · 6f Yie 13327/09C8C8 @ Dundalk 07/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 1m Std 131BHA81 @ Naas 27/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 81 · 1m Gd 121 · below its mark27/04/2026 · OR 81 par27/0481OR 81BHA83 @ Navan 16/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 83 · 1m2f40y Yie 134 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 83 parBHA87 @ Curragh 28/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 87 · 1m1f Gd 129 · below its mark28/06/2026 · OR 87 par28/0687OR 87BHA87 @ Leopardstown 23/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 87 · 1m1f Goo 128 · below its mark23/07/2026 · OR 87 parBHA87 @ Killarney 21/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 87 · 1m30y Gd 139 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 87 par21/0887OR 87BHA87 @ Curragh 29/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 17 · OR 87 · 1m Goo 123 · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 87 parBHA97 @ Curragh 13/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 22 · OR 97 · 1m2f Goo 128 · below its mark13/09/2026 · OR 97 par13/0997OR 97projClass-projected finish: 6th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13CurraghBHA975th16th−9
2026-08-29CurraghBHA872nd12th−8
2026-08-21KillarneyBHA871st11th−8
2026-07-23LeopardstownBHA872nd12th−8
2026-06-28CurraghBHA878th18th−8
2026-05-16NavanBHA832nd11th−8

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0916/0521/0813/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 3-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength49%

Delivery trend -5.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/09/20256th100/10%67%+0.67
07/11/20251st12/137%100%+0.63
27/04/20263rd14/126%78%+0.51
16/05/20262nd9/488%83%-0.05
28/06/20268th13/266%53%-0.12
23/07/20262nd7/491%86%-0.05
21/08/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
29/08/20262nd8/158%94%+0.36
13/09/20265th10/147%81%+0.34