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3yo Colt · 9-5 · OR 104

Cork · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Navigation Stakes (Listed) · 1m 2f 90y

#7

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual winner at 2 yrs who has improved since fitted with a visor, landing the odds by a wide margin at Gowran before an excellent fourth of 22 off a mark of 102 at the Curragh 16 days ago. Looks more than ready for this level now.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲7
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Class-adjusted form 12.9 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -7.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA95 @ Roscommon 01/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 95 · 7f94y Sft 134 · beat its mark01/09/2025 · OR 95 par1/0995OR 95BHA98 @ Curragh 27/09/2025 · Pos 16th of 30 · OR 98 · 7f Sft 131 · below its mark27/09/2025 · OR 98 parBHA95 @ Cork 24/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 95 · 1m2f100y Goo 138 · below its mark24/04/2026 · OR 95 par24/0495OR 95BHA94 @ Gowran Park 01/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 94 · 1m1f120y Yie 130 · below its mark01/06/2026 · OR 94 par1 @ Navan 07/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 92 · 1m1f Goo 124 · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 92 par7/061OR 92BHA93 @ Curragh 28/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 93 · 1m1f Gd 135 · below its mark28/06/2026 · OR 93 parBHA98 @ Navan 11/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 98 · 1m2f40y Goo 136 · below its mark11/07/2026 · OR 98 par11/0798OR 98BHA98 @ Gowran Park 25/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 98 · 1m1f110y Goo 135 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 98 parBHA102 @ Curragh 13/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 22 · OR 102 · 1m2f Goo 133 · below its mark13/09/2026 · OR 102 par13/09102OR 102projClass-projected finish: 10th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13CurraghBHA1024th15th−9
2026-07-25Gowran ParkBHA981st12th−9
2026-07-11NavanBHA982nd13th−9
2026-06-28CurraghBHA932nd12th−9
2026-06-07Navan19th9th0
2026-06-01Gowran ParkBHA946th16th−9

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/091/0611/0713/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/09/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
27/09/202516th22/10%48%+0.48
24/04/20264th11/271%0%-0.71
01/06/20266th11/271%58%-0.13
07/06/20269th40/10%11%+0.11
28/06/20262nd18/15%93%+0.88
11/07/20262nd11/1094%75%-0.19
25/07/20261st30/10098%100%+0.02
13/09/20264th17/255%86%+0.30