3
Hellorhighwater
4yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 86
Cork · Follow Us On X Handicap · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
88%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Curragh | BHA88 | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Limerick | BHA85 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-10 | Cork | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-16 | Killarney | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-06-11 | Limerick | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength7%
Delivery trend -18.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 93% | +0.56 |
| 16/07/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 10/09/2025 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 25/04/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 29/08/2026 | 16th | 7/1 | 63% | 6% | -0.57 |