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4

Lady Lilac

4yo Filly · 9-10 · OR 85

Cork · Follow Us On X Handicap · 1m

#6

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fairly useful filly who shaped as if back in form when third of 9 in handicap at Down Royal in June, seeming stretched by the 10.4f trip. Stiff task in first-time blinkers at Galway since and this is more her level.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength8%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Listowel 22/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 78 · 1m Hvy 129 · below its mark22/09/2025 · OR 78 par22/09C8OR 78C8 @ Killarney 06/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 78 · 1m30y Sft 129 · beat its mark06/10/2025 · OR 78 parBHA80 @ Curragh 02/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 23 · OR 80 · 1m Hvy 123 · below its mark02/11/2025 · OR 80 par2/1180OR 80BHA80 @ Curragh 03/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 21 · OR 80 · 1m Sft 121 · below its mark03/04/2026 · OR 80 parBHA84 @ Limerick 25/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 84 · 1m50y Yie 134 · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 84 par25/0484OR 841 @ Gowran Park 05/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 84 · 1m1f100y Goo 131 · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 84 par1 @ Curragh 23/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 88 · 1m4f Goo 128 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 88 par23/051OR 88BHA88 @ Down Royal 20/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 88 · 1m2f96y Sft 136 · below its mark20/06/2026 · OR 88 parBHA87 @ Galway 28/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 17 · OR 87 · 1m123y Yie 124 · below its mark28/07/2026 · OR 87 par28/0787OR 87projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-28GalwayBHA8710th10th0
2026-06-20Down RoyalBHA883rd3rd0
2026-05-23Curragh17th7th0
2026-05-05Gowran Park15th5th0
2026-04-25LimerickBHA845th5th0
2026-04-03CurraghBHA803rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/093/0423/0528/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength78%

Delivery trend +2.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/09/20252nd5/287%93%+0.06
06/10/20251st2/999%100%+0.01
02/11/20256th16/116%77%+0.61
03/04/20263rd9/153%90%+0.37
25/04/20265th6/168%73%+0.05
05/05/20265th14/126%50%+0.24
23/05/20267th40/10%25%+0.25
20/06/20263rd12/137%75%+0.38
28/07/202610th33/10%44%+0.44