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17

Arizona Star

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 40

Cork · Fitzgerald's Woodlands House Hotel Handicap (0-60) · 1m

#20

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#20

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Well supported but finished well held in handicap at Clonmel (1¼m, good) 13 days ago. Fairly treated on best form, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength24%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 7.8)

Highest class: BHA43
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 28/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 7f Sft 12828/09C8C8 @ Leopardstown 18/10/2025 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR - · 7f30y Yie 128C8 @ Curragh 03/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 1m2f Sft 1293/04C8BHA58 @ Roscommon 18/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 58 · 1m4f17y Yie 126 · below its mark18/05/2026 · OR 58 parBHA56 @ Down Royal 20/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 56 · 1m2f96y Sft 126 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 56 par20/0656OR 56C7 @ Fairyhouse 08/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 53 · 1m2f Goo 127 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 53 parBHA50 @ Cork 30/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 50 · 1m Yie 132 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 50 par30/0850OR 50BHA45 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 21 · OR 45 · 1m2f10y Gd 123 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 45 parBHA43 @ Clonmel 16/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 43 · 1m1f168y Yie 125 · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 43 par16/0943OR 43projClass-projected finish: 8th of 21
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16ClonmelBHA4311th11th0
2026-09-05NavanBHA455th5th0
2026-08-30CorkBHA508th8th0
2026-07-08Fairyhouse?3rd3rd0
2026-06-20Down RoyalBHA566th6th0
2026-05-18RoscommonBHA5811th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0918/0530/0816/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 2120% of fieldRange 5-21 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength27%

Delivery trend -6.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 17th of 21. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/09/202510th200/10%18%+0.18
18/10/202513th250/10%0%0.00
03/04/20263rd400/10%78%+0.78
18/05/202611th80/10%17%+0.17
20/06/20266th66/10%44%+0.44
08/07/20263rd33/10%75%+0.75
30/08/20268th13/266%53%-0.12
05/09/20265th7/163%80%+0.17
16/09/202611th9/276%23%-0.53