5
Concaire
3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 55
Cork · Fitzgerald's Woodlands House Hotel Handicap (0-60) · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class: BHA56
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Clonmel | BHA56 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Navan | BHA58 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Down Royal | BHA59 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Limerick | BHA56 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Roscommon | BHA59 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Cork | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 2165% of fieldRange 7-18 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength43%
Delivery trend -7.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 21. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2026 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 19/04/2026 | 16th | 125/1 | 0% | 35% | +0.35 |
| 03/05/2026 | 8th | 150/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 11/05/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 62% | +0.09 |
| 10/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 92% | +0.07 |
| 19/06/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 02/09/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 16/09/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 69% | -0.07 |