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21

Jazz Dreamers

8yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 40

Cork · Fitzgerald's Woodlands House Hotel Handicap (0-60) · 1m

#15

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#15

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Losing run stretches back to 2023 and was well beaten at Down Royal on Monday. RESERVE.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 10.0 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA45 @ Laytown 04/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 45 · 7f Std 141 · beat its mark04/09/2025 · OR 45 par4/0945OR 45BHA41 @ Dundalk 19/11/2025 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 41 · 1m2f150y Std 123 · beat its mark19/11/2025 · OR 41 parBHA40 @ Dundalk 09/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 40 · 1m Std 122 · beat its mark09/01/2026 · OR 40 par9/0140OR 40BHA40 @ Dundalk 30/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 40 · 1m2f150y Std 122 · beat its mark30/01/2026 · OR 40 parBHA40 @ Leopardstown 09/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 22 · OR 40 · 1m1f Goo 122 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 40 par9/0740OR 40BHA40 @ Gowran Park 25/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 40 · 1m1f110y Goo 122 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 40 parBHA40 @ Bellewstown 25/08/2026 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR 40 · 7f195y Goo 123 · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 40 par25/0840OR 40BHA40 @ Clonmel 16/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 40 · 1m1f168y Yie 122 · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 40 parBHA40 @ Down Royal 28/09/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 40 · 1m3f10y Goo 122 · beat its mark28/09/2026 · OR 40 par28/0940OR 40projClass-projected finish: 14th of 21
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-28Down RoyalBHA4013th13th0
2026-09-16ClonmelBHA407th7th0
2026-08-25BellewstownBHA4013th13th0
2026-07-25Gowran ParkBHA4010th10th0
2026-07-09LeopardstownBHA408th8th0
2026-01-30DundalkBHA409th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0930/0125/0828/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 2125% of fieldRange 10-21 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength14%

Delivery trend -2.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 16th of 21. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/09/20256th25/10%44%+0.44
19/11/202514th25/10%0%0.00
09/01/20267th50/10%54%+0.54
30/01/20269th80/10%38%+0.38
09/07/20268th50/10%67%+0.67
25/07/202610th16/116%25%+0.09
25/08/202613th12/137%14%-0.23
16/09/20267th50/10%54%+0.54
28/09/202613th80/10%8%+0.08