20
La Tulipe Noire
6yo Mare · 10-2 · OR 58
Cork · Fitzgerald's Woodlands House Hotel Handicap (0-60) · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
55%
Place Prob
49%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Listowel | 1 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Wexford | BHA84 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-08 | Ballinrobe | BHA63 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Curragh | BHA63 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Limerick | BHA65 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Gowran Park | BHA66 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 2160% of fieldRange 18-21 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -7.7% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 21. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 87% | +0.71 |
| 02/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.37 |
| 23/11/2025 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 30% | -0.12 |
| 15/03/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 08/04/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 47% | +0.31 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 69% | +0.43 |
| 04/05/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 08/05/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 22/09/2026 | 11th | 200/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |