1
On The Money Red
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 76
Fairmount Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-07-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-11 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-16 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 6-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -9.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/06/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 24/06/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 12/07/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 16/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 11/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 28/10/2025 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 15/09/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |