2
Smart Joker
7yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 80
Fairmount Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
54%
Place Prob
38%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-05 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-16 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-22 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength75%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 14/03/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 10/05/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 86% | -0.06 |
| 22/07/2025 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 16/09/2025 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 14/10/2025 | 7th | 6/4 | 92% | 0% | -0.92 |
| 24/11/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 05/05/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |