4
Tapit Sam
8yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 74
Fairmount Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | Fairmount Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-02 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-07-19 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 6-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09/2024 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 17/09/2024 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 24/06/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 19/07/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 02/09/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 04/10/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 25/10/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 18/04/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 57% | -0.28 |
| 05/05/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 11% | -0.26 |