4
Diva Las Vegas
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 47
Fairmount Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
1/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Fairmount Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.1% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/05/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/05/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 16/06/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 01/08/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 12/09/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 89% | +0.63 |