1
Frosted Eclair
7yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 58
Fairmount Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
94%
Place Prob
70%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-02-25 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-12-17 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength64%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 86% | -0.05 |
| 28/09/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 02/11/2025 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 22% | -0.51 |
| 17/12/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 30% | +0.14 |
| 25/02/2026 | 7th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 26/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/08/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 18/08/2026 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 20% | -0.70 |
| 08/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |