5
Long Tall Woman
8yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 54
Fairmount Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Hawthorne | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength14%
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 03/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 14/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 28/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 19/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 28/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 18/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 08/09/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |