1
Good Nellie
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 69
Fairmount Park · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.6 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Fairmount Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Hawthorne | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-06-11 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2025-10-30 | Hawthorne | ? | 9th | 12th | −3 |
| 2025-09-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 9-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 56% | -0.05 |
| 30/10/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 11/06/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 07/07/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |