IvyArcIvyArc
7

Last Candy

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 50

Fairmount Park · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Hawthorne 27/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 5f 11927/07C6C6 @ Hawthorne 17/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 39 · 5f 119 · beat its mark17/08/2025 · OR 39 parC6 @ Hawthorne 07/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 46 · 5f 119 · beat its mark07/09/2025 · OR 46 par7/09C6OR 46C6 @ Hawthorne 28/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 51 · 5f110y 119 · beat its mark28/09/2025 · OR 51 parC5 @ Hawthorne 19/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 55 · 6f110y Gd 115 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/10/2025 · OR 55 par19/10C5OR 55C6 @ Fairmount Park 07/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 48 · 6f 120 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 48 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 28/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 47 · 5f110y 120 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 47 par28/07C6OR 47C6 @ Fairmount Park 18/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 49 · 6f 120 · beat its mark18/08/2026 · OR 49 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 08/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 46 · 1m 120 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 46 par8/09C6OR 46projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Fairmount Park?7th7th0
2026-08-18Fairmount Park?7th7th0
2026-07-28Fairmount Park?4th4th0
2026-07-07Fairmount Park?4th4th0
2025-10-19Hawthorne?3rd1st+2
2025-09-28Hawthorne?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0728/0928/078/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 7-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -11.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/07/20255th12/137%20%-0.17
17/08/20254th40/10%57%+0.57
07/09/20253rd20/10%75%+0.75
28/09/20253rd25/10%75%+0.75
19/10/20253rd20/10%60%+0.60
07/07/20264th6/168%63%-0.06
28/07/20264th4/179%63%-0.16
18/08/20267th15/261%33%-0.27
08/09/20267th9/153%0%-0.53