4
Miss Duquoin
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 55
Fairmount Park · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength98%
Delivery trend -6.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 28/07/2026 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 17% | -0.73 |
| 18/08/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |