City Of God

6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 85

Fairmount Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength33%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +0.7

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-19	Fairmount Park	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-07-05	Hawthorne	?	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2026-06-18	Hawthorne	?	2nd	1st	+1	9.2
2026-05-23	Fairmount Park	?	9th	8th	+1	2.2
2025-10-28	Fairmount Park	?	6th	5th	+1	5.2
2025-10-12	Hawthorne	?	6th	6th	0	4.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength36%

Delivery trend -2.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
02/08/2025	2nd	15/2	61%	80%	+0.19
09/09/2025	5th	10/1	47%	33%	-0.14
27/09/2025	4th	10/3	82%	40%	-0.42
12/10/2025	6th	9/1	53%	38%	-0.15
28/10/2025	6th	33/1	0%	0%	0.00
23/05/2026	9th	25/1	0%	0%	0.00
18/06/2026	2nd	8/1	58%	67%	+0.09
05/07/2026	3rd	7/1	63%	50%	-0.13
19/09/2026	6th	15/2	61%	17%	-0.44