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8

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7yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 77

Fairmount Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength64%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Fairmount Park 10/05/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 82 · 6f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/05/2025 · OR 82 par10/05C6OR 82C8 @ Fairmount Park 01/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 76 · 1m70y Fas 124 · beat its mark01/07/2025 · OR 76 parC8 @ Fairmount Park 02/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 78 · 1m70y Fas 124 · beat its mark02/08/2025 · OR 78 par2/08C8OR 78C6 @ Fairmount Park 09/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 77 · 1m110y 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/09/2025 · OR 77 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 11/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 81 · 1m110y Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/10/2025 · OR 81 par11/10C6OR 81C6 @ Fairmount Park 25/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 82 · 1m70y Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/10/2025 · OR 82 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 30/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 85 · 6f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/05/2026 · OR 85 par30/05C6OR 85C7 @ Fairmount Park 23/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 75 · 1m110y 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/06/2026 · OR 75 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 29/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 80 · 6f 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 80 par29/08C6OR 80projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Fairmount Park?5th3rd+2
2026-06-23Fairmount Park?5th4th+1
2026-05-30Fairmount Park?9th7th+2
2025-10-25Fairmount Park?4th2nd+2
2025-10-11Fairmount Park?2nd0th+2
2025-09-09Fairmount Park?2nd0th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/059/0930/0529/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/05/20258th6/168%0%-0.68
01/07/20251st15/890%100%+0.10
02/08/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
09/09/20252nd9/153%83%+0.31
11/10/20252nd10/147%86%+0.38
25/10/20254th10/147%57%+0.10
30/05/20269th40/10%20%+0.20
23/06/20265th20/10%50%+0.50
29/08/20265th20/10%0%0.00