Mister Sharpie

6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 77

Fairmount Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

11%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼2

Strength56%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.8

Today:

Class gap: +1.7

Higher-class runs: 5

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-25	Fairmount Park	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-06-20	Fairmount Park	?	9th	7th	+2	3.4
2026-05-30	Fairmount Park	?	8th	6th	+2	4.4
2026-05-09	Fairmount Park	?	2nd	0th	+2	5.0
2026-04-18	Fairmount Park	?	2nd	0th	+2	5.0
2025-10-11	Fairmount Park	?	6th	4th	+2	6.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%

▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price

Trend▬

Strength64%

Delivery trend +0.4% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 8.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
02/08/2025	2nd	2/1	89%	80%	-0.09
19/08/2025	5th	7/1	63%	0%	-0.63
13/09/2025	2nd	16/1	16%	86%	+0.70
11/10/2025	6th	15/2	61%	29%	-0.32
18/04/2026	2nd	9/1	53%	89%	+0.36
09/05/2026	2nd	9/1	53%	88%	+0.35
30/05/2026	8th	14/1	26%	30%	+0.04
20/06/2026	9th	7/1	63%	11%	-0.52
25/07/2026	2nd	11/2	71%	75%	+0.04