2
Patch O'brien
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 73
Fairmount Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
36%
Place Prob
35%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength69%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 01/01/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 06/02/2026 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 21/02/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 19/03/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 16/06/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 18/07/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 11/08/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 19/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |