2
Plum Irish
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 67
Fairmount Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 8-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 21/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 25/10/2025 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 13% | -0.51 |
| 23/11/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 08/01/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 14/02/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 07/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 28/03/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 04/04/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |