Sunset Harbour

4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 77

Fairmount Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

9/5

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength47%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +0.7

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-08	Fairmount Park	?	4th	2nd	+2	8.4
2026-08-18	Fairmount Park	?	4th	2nd	+2	8.4
2026-06-26	Churchill Downs	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-06-11	Churchill Downs	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-05-23	Churchill Downs	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-04-16	Keeneland	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%

▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only

Trend▬

Strength96%

Delivery trend +1.6% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 8.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
24/01/2026	1st	9/4	88%	100%	+0.12
20/02/2026	3rd	11/4	86%	60%	-0.26
25/03/2026	8th	13/2	66%	0%	-0.66
16/04/2026	2nd	15/2	61%	80%	+0.19
23/05/2026	2nd	8/1	58%	83%	+0.25
11/06/2026	3rd	7/1	63%	67%	+0.04
26/06/2026	4th	25/1	0%	63%	+0.63
18/08/2026	4th	2/1	89%	57%	-0.32
08/09/2026	4th	9/2	76%	57%	-0.19