6
Anna After Midnite
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 64
Fairmount Park · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-26 | Hawthorne | ? | 8th | 10th | −2 |
| 2025-10-12 | Hawthorne | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2025-09-25 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2025-08-31 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-08-21 | Hawthorne | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2025-07-24 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 9-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -9.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05/2025 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 01/06/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 26/06/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 24/07/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 21/08/2025 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 17% | -0.69 |
| 31/08/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 25/09/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 43% | -0.43 |
| 12/10/2025 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |
| 26/10/2025 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 13% | -0.66 |