7
Mamba Out
6yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 72
Fairmount Park · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
47%
Place Prob
35%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-12 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Hawthorne | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-23 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -7.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 07/02/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 19/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 60% | -0.33 |
| 23/04/2026 | 4th | 8/11 | 96% | 25% | -0.71 |
| 07/05/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 28/05/2026 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 20% | -0.70 |
| 18/06/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 12/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 11/08/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |