2
Sally's Suprise
6yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 85
Fairmount Park · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Hawthorne | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength65%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 20/02/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |
| 21/04/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 14/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 07/06/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 14/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 04/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 18/08/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |