1
Samarita
7yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 72
Fairmount Park · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Hawthorne | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Hawthorne | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-09-19 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-08-07 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-07-19 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength2%
Delivery trend -6.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/01/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 24/04/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 29/05/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 19/07/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 07/08/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 19/09/2025 | 4th | 11/10 | 94% | 0% | -0.94 |
| 30/10/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 05/07/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |