Smoked
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 76
Fairmount Park · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
43%
Place Prob
34%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 2.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-10-07 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-07-15 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/04/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 22/05/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 26/06/2025 | 9th | 7/2 | 82% | 11% | -0.70 |
| 15/07/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 22/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 07/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 33% | -0.59 |
| 30/10/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 26/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 63% | -0.23 |