8
Baby I'm Hammered
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 70
Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength50%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 14/10/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 25/04/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 16/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 01/08/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 14% | -0.67 |
| 18/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 08/09/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |