Canyon Shadows
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 55
Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#10
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Hawthorne | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-06-07 | Hawthorne | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-05-21 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-11-03 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-10-26 | Hawthorne | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 21/08/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 09/10/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 26/10/2025 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 03/11/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 21/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 07/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 18/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/08/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |