1
Coolthing
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 73
Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength58%
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 21/10/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 03/11/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 18/04/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 18/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 15/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |