10
Earl's Outlaw
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 72
Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
92%
Place Prob
67%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-10-19 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +15.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 10/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 71% | -0.23 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 01/09/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |