4
Gogh
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 78
Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 2.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-10 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-19 | Hawthorne | BHA62 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-09-14 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength90%
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 28/08/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 14/09/2025 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 40% | -0.50 |
| 19/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 10/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 19/07/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 18/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 08/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |