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2

Man On Attack

6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 88

Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

7%

Place Prob

18%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength46%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Hawthorne 21/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 85 · 7f110y Gd 122 · below its mark21/09/2025 · OR 85 par21/09C8OR 85C8 @ Hawthorne 12/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 93 · 1m Fm 122 · below its mark12/10/2025 · OR 93 parC8 @ Hawthorne 30/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 93 · 1m Fm 122 · below its mark30/10/2025 · OR 93 par30/10C8OR 93C8 @ Turfway Park 11/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 93 · 6f 121 · below its mark11/01/2026 · OR 93 parC8 @ Hawthorne 31/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 84 · 1m Fm 123 · below its mark31/05/2026 · OR 84 par31/05C8OR 84C5 @ Hawthorne 28/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 87 · 7f110y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 87 parC8 @ Hawthorne 12/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 91 · 1m Fm 123 · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 91 par12/07C8OR 91C5 @ Hawthorne 19/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 92 · 1m 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 92 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 08/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 91 · 5f110y 124 · below its mark08/09/2026 · OR 91 par8/09C6OR 91projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Fairmount Park?2nd2nd0
2026-07-19Hawthorne?2nd1st+1
2026-07-12Hawthorne?2nd4th−2
2026-06-28Hawthorne?2nd1st+1
2026-05-31Hawthorne?2nd4th−2
2026-01-11Turfway Park?6th8th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0911/0112/078/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/09/20253rd11/486%78%-0.08
12/10/20253rd2/189%75%-0.14
30/10/20254th7/282%63%-0.19
11/01/20266th14/126%29%+0.02
31/05/20262nd12/137%86%+0.49
28/06/20262nd2/189%80%-0.09
12/07/20262nd11/271%75%+0.04
19/07/20262nd7/491%88%-0.03
08/09/20262nd10/147%88%+0.40