7
Stance
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 71
Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 5-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength36%
Delivery trend +3.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 09/08/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 27/09/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 21/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 25/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 90% | +0.16 |
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 01/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 18/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |