IvyArcIvyArc
9

Steve

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 55

Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f

#9

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength19%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Fairmount Park 30/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 63 · 6f 118 · beat its mark30/09/2025 · OR 63 par30/09C6OR 63C6 @ Fairmount Park 18/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 62 · 6f 118 · below its mark18/10/2025 · OR 62 parC8 @ Hawthorne 03/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 59 · 6f110y Fas 119 · below its mark03/11/2025 · OR 59 par3/11C8OR 59C6 @ Fairmount Park 23/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 54 · 5f110y 124 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 54 parC8 @ Fairmount Park 16/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 52 · 6f 124 · below its mark16/06/2026 · OR 52 par16/06C8OR 52C8 @ Fairmount Park 04/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 56 · 1m70y 124 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 56 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 01/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 55 · 6f 124 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 55 par1/08C6OR 55C6 @ Fairmount Park 18/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 59 · 6f 124 · below its mark18/08/2026 · OR 59 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 08/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 57 · 5f110y 124 · below its mark08/09/2026 · OR 57 par8/09C6OR 57projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Fairmount Park?8th8th0
2026-08-18Fairmount Park?7th7th0
2026-08-01Fairmount Park?3rd3rd0
2026-07-04Fairmount Park?3rd5th−2
2026-06-16Fairmount Park?5th7th−2
2026-05-23Fairmount Park?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0923/051/088/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength17%

Delivery trend +1.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/09/20252nd14/126%83%+0.57
18/10/20255th9/488%0%-0.88
03/11/20259th20/10%11%+0.11
23/05/20265th20/10%20%+0.20
16/06/20265th16/116%33%+0.18
04/07/20263rd20/10%71%+0.71
01/08/20263rd16/116%71%+0.56
18/08/20267th6/168%14%-0.54
08/09/20268th20/10%13%+0.13