2
Ancient Man
7yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 63
Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#7
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Hawthorne | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength30%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 07/08/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 03/11/2025 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 07/06/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 05/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 19/07/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 29/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 12/09/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |