4
Army Hero
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 64
Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#10
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Fairmount Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-06-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-01 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 10-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -12.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 20/11/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 14/12/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 01/01/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 09/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 25/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 11/08/2026 | 5th | 13/8 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 29/08/2026 | 9th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |