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1

Juliaison

8yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 68

Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 70y

#1

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

54%

Place Prob

42%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength3%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Fairmount Park 10/09/2024 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 65 · 6f Fas 126 · below its mark10/09/2024 · OR 65 par10/09C8OR 65C8 @ Fairmount Park 06/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 60 · 5f110y Fas 124 · below its mark06/05/2025 · OR 60 parC8 @ Fairmount Park 24/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 64 · 6f Fm 124 · below its mark24/06/2025 · OR 64 par24/06C8OR 64C8 @ Fairmount Park 09/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 66 · 1m70y Fas 119 · below its mark09/08/2025 · OR 66 parC8 @ Fairmount Park 16/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 57 · 1m 126 · beat its mark16/09/2025 · OR 57 par16/09C8OR 57C8 @ Hawthorne 02/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 67 · 1m70y Fas 122 · below its mark02/11/2025 · OR 67 parC8 @ Fairmount Park 25/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 66 · 5f Fas 119 · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 66 par25/04C8OR 66C8 @ Fairmount Park 12/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 64 · 5f110y 124 · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 64 parC8 @ Fairmount Park 25/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 65 · 1m70y Gd 126 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 65 par25/07C8OR 65projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25Fairmount Park?1st1st0
2026-05-12Fairmount Park?1st1st0
2026-04-25Fairmount Park?4th4th0
2025-11-02Hawthorne?5th5th0
2025-09-16Fairmount Park?1st1st0
2025-08-09Fairmount Park?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/099/0825/0425/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength89%

Delivery trend +5.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/09/20247th14/126%14%-0.12
06/05/20253rd8/158%60%+0.02
24/06/20253rd12/137%67%+0.30
09/08/20257th20/10%25%+0.25
16/09/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
02/11/20255th25/10%50%+0.50
25/04/20264th20/10%40%+0.40
12/05/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
25/07/20261st10/382%100%+0.18