6
Lou Man
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 69
Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#6
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-04-09 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-02-23 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-01-08 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-11-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-11-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength71%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/2024 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 29/09/2024 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 13/11/2024 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 50% | -0.44 |
| 22/11/2024 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 08/01/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 23/02/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 09/04/2025 | 5th | 6/5 | 94% | 33% | -0.60 |
| 12/09/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |