10
Millard's Smile
7yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 70
Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#3
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
13%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 8-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength6%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 05/07/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 17/07/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 09/08/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 27/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 18/10/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 28/10/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 63% | -0.24 |
| 25/08/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 45% | -0.07 |
| 19/09/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |