3

Mon Ami Fuzzie

8yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 72

Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 70y

#9

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength49%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Hawthorne 21/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 81 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/08/2025 · OR 81 par21/08C5OR 81C8 @ Fairmount Park 16/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 80 · 6f 124 · below its mark16/09/2025 · OR 80 parC8 @ Hawthorne 02/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 83 · 6f Fas 122 · below its mark02/10/2025 · OR 83 par2/10C8OR 83C8 @ Hawthorne 23/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 80 · 6f Fas 122 · beat its mark23/10/2025 · OR 80 parC8 @ Hawthorne 07/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 80 · 6f 123 · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 80 par7/06C8OR 80C8 @ Hawthorne 18/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 81 · 6f 123 · below its mark18/06/2026 · OR 81 parC8 @ Hawthorne 05/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 84 · 6f Fas 123 · below its mark05/07/2026 · OR 84 par5/07C8OR 84C6 @ Fairmount Park 25/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 79 · 6f Gd 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/07/2026 · OR 79 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 25/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 77 · 6f 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/08/2026 · OR 77 par25/08C6OR 77projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-25Fairmount Park?5th3rd+2
2026-07-25Fairmount Park?4th2nd+2
2026-07-05Hawthorne?3rd3rd0
2026-06-18Hawthorne?3rd3rd0
2026-06-07Hawthorne?3rd3rd0
2025-10-23Hawthorne?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0823/105/0725/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength59%

Delivery trend +3.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/08/20255th14/126%20%-0.06
16/09/20254th15/261%40%-0.21
02/10/20255th11/486%43%-0.43
23/10/20251st14/126%100%+0.74
07/06/20263rd6/168%75%+0.07
18/06/20263rd9/153%60%+0.07
05/07/20263rd9/488%50%-0.38
25/07/20264th16/116%57%+0.41
25/08/20265th14/126%43%+0.17