5
Spanish Doubloon
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 65
Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#8
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-10 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength47%
Delivery trend -4.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 14/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 25/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 86% | -0.07 |
| 10/11/2025 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 86% | -0.08 |
| 25/04/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 04/07/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 11/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 08/09/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |