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4

Bustin Away

5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 93

Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

8/5

Win Prob

40%

Place Prob

32%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Tampa Bay Downs 27/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 92 · 6f 120 · below its mark27/12/2025 · OR 92 par27/12C7OR 92C8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 03/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 92 · 6f 118 · below its mark03/01/2026 · OR 92 parC8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 24/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 92 · 6f Fas 118 · below its mark24/01/2026 · OR 92 par24/01C8OR 92C6 @ Finger Lakes 18/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 88 · 5f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 88 parC6 @ Finger Lakes 27/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 87 · 5f110y 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/05/2026 · OR 87 par27/05C6OR 87C6 @ Finger Lakes 30/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 90 · 5f110y 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/06/2026 · OR 90 parC7 @ Presque Isle Downs 21/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 90 · 6f 123 · below its mark21/07/2026 · OR 90 par21/07C7OR 90C7 @ Finger Lakes 18/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 94 · 6f 121 · below its mark18/08/2026 · OR 94 parC7 @ Finger Lakes 02/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 94 · 6f Gd 121 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 94 par2/09C7OR 94projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Finger Lakes?1st1st0
2026-08-18Finger Lakes?2nd2nd0
2026-07-21Presque Isle Downs?5th5th0
2026-06-30Finger Lakes?4th3rd+1
2026-05-27Finger Lakes?1st0th+1
2026-05-18Finger Lakes?1st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/1218/0521/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength55%

Delivery trend -7.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/12/20255th20/10%33%+0.33
03/01/20265th33/10%56%+0.56
24/01/20262nd10/382%90%+0.08
18/05/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
27/05/20261st4/596%100%+0.04
30/06/20264th5/287%40%-0.47
21/07/20265th8/158%0%-0.58
18/08/20262nd9/276%80%+0.04
02/09/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05