Capt Jax Parrow
4yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 91
Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
22%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-06-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-04-30 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/01/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 19/02/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 12/03/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 02/04/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 12/04/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 30/04/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 15/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 18/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |