3
Chardonnay Derby
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 62
Finger Lakes · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
84%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength80%
Delivery trend +3.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07/2025 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 13% | -0.59 |
| 14/03/2026 | 2nd | 8/13 | 97% | 75% | -0.22 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 16/05/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 29% | -0.37 |
| 03/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 15/06/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 17% | -0.44 |
| 14/07/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |
| 10/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 14/09/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |