4
Jayce And Liam
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 53
Finger Lakes · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-07-29 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-06-07 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-02-22 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength71%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/2024 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 25/11/2024 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 13/12/2024 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 22/02/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 07/06/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 29/07/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 22/07/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |
| 10/08/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |