5
Tomaki
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 42
Finger Lakes · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-30 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-26 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/07/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 12/08/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 26/08/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 30/09/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 16/06/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/08/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/09/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |